Stock Price Sensitivity to Dividend Changes

This paper examines the stock price sensitivity to dividend changes. The Dividend Signaling, the Free-Cash-Flow, the Maturity and the Catering Hypotheses all predict an average positive (negative) reaction to announcement of a dividend increase (decrease). However, these hypotheses have different cross-sectional predictions. This paper documents that the positive stock price response to dividend increases is due primarily to the signaling of higher future earnings, to the managers catering to the time-varying premium assigned by the market to dividend paying stocks, and partially to the reduction of agency problems. On the contrary, the negative price response to dividend decreases is mainly due to the transition from a mature life-cycle stage to a decline stage with higher systematic risk, as maintained by the Maturity Hypothesis.